tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85917414033569524312024-02-18T21:54:38.543-08:00Toby S. JamesToby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-48308276376678572942013-10-23T07:25:00.003-07:002013-10-24T03:26:49.402-07:00Dangers remain with electoral registration changes: Norwich and Cambridge could be amongst the most affected areasThe government is planning to introduce individual electoral registration (IER) in June 2014. A new report and data released from the Electoral Commission suggests its implementation still poses a risk for British democracy.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/06/23/pa.gss032.abstract" target="_blank">My earlier research</a> on the likely effects of IER suggested that this would:<br />
<ul>
<li><b>improve confidence in elections,</b> but</li>
<li>result in a considerable <b>decline in levels of electoral registration</b>, a concern when electoral registration levels are already low in the UK. This would affect particular groups such as students, the mobile and young disproportionately.</li>
<li>lead to a considerable<b> increase in the costs</b> of running UK elections. </li>
<li>lead to issues with <b>data management and a need for staff training</b></li>
</ul>
The government is trying to prevent a decline though 'data-matching' - use the government's existing records such as the DWP database to improve re-register people automatically. A <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/163173/IER-Readiness-Assessment.pdf" target="_blank">new report</a> from the Electoral Commission has said that plans to implement IER are 'on track' but there remains risks:<br />
<ul>
<li>52% of electoral officials are concerned that they will not have enough money to implement data-matching effectively</li>
<li>a system for allowing online registration has not been fully tested yet</li>
<li>although re-registration rates were higher than last thought, there are uneven regional effects ranging from 46.9% in Kensington and Chelsea to 86.4%. 'Students, young adults and private renters' are also less likely to be re-registered. </li>
</ul>
<div>
<b><u>Which areas are most affected?</u></b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I had a quick look at some of the Electoral Commission's <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/excel_doc/0020/163145/Confirmation-dry-run-2013-Results-Local-Authority.xls" target="_blank">data </a>on which areas were the most and least affected. What percentage of people are on the electoral register but cannot be matched against the DWP database? In my own local area of the East of England, the local authorities most/least affected are:</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<div>
<b>Local Authority / Percentage of registered electorate that could not be matched</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Cambridge 36.7% (33,205 people)</div>
<div>
Norwich 26.2% (26,941 people)</div>
<div>
Watford 22.3%</div>
<div>
Luton 20.6%</div>
<div>
Colchester 21.1%</div>
<div>
-----</div>
<div>
Tendering 13.0%</div>
<div>
Broadland 13.8%</div>
<div>
Castle Point 13.0%</div>
<div>
Rochford 12.8%<br />
<br />
The breakdown by wards gives us more detail and shows how students are a key group who might be affected. Amongst the highest wards were:<br />
<br />
Market (Cambridge) 75.2% (4813 people)<br />
Wivenhoe Cross (Colchester) 55.2% (3757 people)<br />
University (Norwich) 46.5% (3521 people)<br />
<br />
Implementation is everything when it comes to government policy and it is no different with elections. <b>There needs to be adequate funding available for electoral officials in local government if British elections are not to be adversely affected. These reforms come at a time when budgets are already being squeezed because of public spending cuts and the number of elections that held is increasing.</b></div>
</div>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-11252883093950198382013-07-19T04:46:00.000-07:002013-08-05T07:21:16.982-07:00Electoral registration changes hit a set-back: A new way forward<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">There was bad news for British democracy on Wednesday.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><b>The new system of electoral registration
being introduced in Britain next year hit a set-back.</b></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9f84Wom7I8s9tc3c4S0GGTbsjgBQjJ9Zn4cjAlOV4rr-NoXkeFjVk5eOxT3xlOKYrdAUdYJ5b7C0I4m2nuqUyOGMhQfANRhzOiwWPGvKnRJes1XjfPYS-JRMi6BqrbjHn54vBrMTSMMV/s1600/ballot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9f84Wom7I8s9tc3c4S0GGTbsjgBQjJ9Zn4cjAlOV4rr-NoXkeFjVk5eOxT3xlOKYrdAUdYJ5b7C0I4m2nuqUyOGMhQfANRhzOiwWPGvKnRJes1XjfPYS-JRMi6BqrbjHn54vBrMTSMMV/s1600/ballot.jpg" /></a></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Soon, every citizen in Britain will need to register individually and provide key personal identifiers in order to register. When this was introduced in Northern Ireland there was a significant decline in levels of electoral registration. <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/06/23/pa.gss032.abstract" target="_blank">Research </a>has suggested
that a further decline will occur when implemented in Britain too. This is especially troubling since one in
five of eligible voters are already thought to not be registered. I wrote a blog about the changes on the <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1036">Democratic Audit</a> website
earlier in the week. But things are
moving quickly. <o:p></o:p></span>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">One idea that the government has been exploring to
prevent any drop is data-mining. This
involves registration officers using other government databases, such as the Department
for Work and Pensions, the Student Loans Company etc., to find the names and
addresses of people who are not on the register. They can then be written to and invited to
register.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/improving-the-electoral-register-through-data-matching" target="_blank">government </a>and <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/156189/Data-mining-pilot-evaluation-report.pdf" target="_blank">Electoral Commission</a> published
reports on the effectiveness of data-matching pilots on Wednesday. This or its consequences was <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=data+matching+pilot&oq=data+matching+pilot&aqs=chrome.0.69i57j0j69i59j69i62l3.4903j0&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=data+matching+pilot&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ei=3RHpUaXzIYbF0QX89ID4CQ&ved=0CA0Q_AUoAQ&bav=on.2,or.r_cp.r_qf.&bvm=bv.49478099%2Cd.d2k%2Cpv.xjs.s.en_US.c75bKy5EQ0A.O&fp=ebedf5da52b0ffd5&biw=1366&bih=643">not
picked up by any media</a>, as far as I am aware, perhaps because there was <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/news-and-media/news-releases">no
Electoral Commission</a> or <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/announcements?keywords=electoral+registrat&announcement_type_option=all&topics%5B%5D=all&departments%5B%5D=all&world_locations%5B%5D=all&direction=before&date=2013-08-01">Cabinet
office</a> press release. Sadly for
British democracy, the news is not good.
<o:p></o:p></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">The first thing to say is that the pilots were not a
perfect experiment. The Electoral
Commission noted that registration officers were hindered by ‘delays and… [needed]
a greater level of support’ from the Cabinet Office <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/156189/Data-mining-pilot-evaluation-report.pdf">(p.2)</a>. However, the headlines are that:</span>
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><b>The databases used produced low levels of new electoral
registrations</b>. If managed differently,
there might have been greater returns, the Electoral Commission suggested and the
evaluations might have been able to be more certain about whether these were
really new registrations or not.</span></li>
<li><b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span dir="LTR" style="text-indent: -18pt;"></span></b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><b>It
was very expensive</b>. Registration
officers therefore could not absorb this practice into their everyday practice
without significantly more money. Cabinet
Office did not publish their expenditure <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/156189/Data-mining-pilot-evaluation-report.pdf">(p.4)</a>
so there might be more costs involved in managing the process centrally. This
comes at a time of government spending cuts.</span></li>
</ol>
The Electoral Commission has therefore concluded that
the pilot does ‘not justify the national roll out’ of data-matching. This means that we may still be set for a ‘car-crash’
drop in levels of electoral registration.<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">We should not be hasty in casting data-mining
aside. After all, it did find <i>some</i>
new voters. And what is the monetary
value of a registered voter or a vote? Whatever
the state of the public finances, democracy must not be compromised.<o:p></o:p></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">However, there is clearly a need to explore further ways
to boost voter registration. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h4>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">A British Motor Voter Act?</span></h4>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">One way that I have suggested that this can be achieved is for the UK to <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/23831">learn from the
US experience</a>. In the US in the 1990s a law was passed that expanded the number of locations and opportunities whereby eligible citizens could apply to register to vote. In particular,
citizens were to be given a voter registration application when they applied
for or renewed a driver’s license, or when applying for (or receiving) services
at certain other public offices.<o:p></o:p></span>
<span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Today, a huge proportion of new registrants use this mechanism to register to vote in the US. Data from the<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><a href="http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/Documents/2010%20NVRA%20FINAL%20REPORT.pdf"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">US Electoral
Assistance Commission</span></a></span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"> </span>shows that 37.1 per cent of
registration forms were submitted via motor vehicle agencies in 2010. Over <a href="http://www.eac.gov/assets/1/Slideshow/A6.JPG"> 18 million citizens used this method in 2008</a></span><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">.
Subsequent empirical studies showed how this (and other methods) could improve
registration rates (</span><a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00344893.2010.518076"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">see here for
an overview</span></a><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">). Researchers<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><a href="http://thenewpress.com/index.php?option=com_title&task=view_title&metaproductid=1725"><span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; padding: 0cm;">later argued</span></a><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"> </span><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">that the effect on registration could have been greater had
federal agencies worked harder to enforce the Act.</span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">This might be a more promising way to
improve voter registration. When we
register for a drivers licence (or access another government service) could a box be provided for us to tick so that we can have our name added to the
electoral register? Electoral registration
officers could then check and update their records.<o:p></o:p></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">No doubt, that would cost money. But elections and democratic representation
are worth it.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-49675131464425985332013-07-15T09:11:00.000-07:002013-08-05T07:21:39.192-07:00Individual electoral registration: a car crash on the horizon for British democracy?I have been writing and blogging about the individual electoral registration a lot over the past few two years or so. The legislation has now been passed and we edge nearer and nearer to it becoming a reality.<br />
<br />
The Democratic Audit have published the latest of my blogs today, which considers the implementation stages of the changes that could have significant consequences for British democracy.<br />
<br />
The blog is available here: <a href="http://www.democraticaudit.com/?p=1036" target="_blank">Individual electoral registration still needs a lot of work, if it is not to be a car crash for British democracy</a>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-37309052080933054632013-06-12T01:05:00.000-07:002013-08-05T07:21:59.665-07:00Why are failures of electoral management everywhere?<b>Examples of errors and incompetence in the organisation of elections can now be readily found in many democracies around the world. Consider:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2010/5/7/general-election-2010-ballot-papers-run-out-a">In the UK 2010 general election</a>, a number of polling stations run out of ballot papers or had queues which meant that citizens were unable to cast their vote.</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/7k0ucg06EA8?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.elections.ca/res/cons/comp/crfr/pdf/crfr_e.pdf">A recent report</a> on the running of the Canadian elections showed that over 500 serious errors were made, on average, per electoral district in the 2011 federal elections. These were so serious that the election result was initially annulled by a judge.</li>
</ul>
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/ERQyVd7SQV0?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<ul>
<li>Reports from the<a href="http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/indelible-ink-wont-come-off-says-ec"> Malaysian 2013 election</a>s that officials were not shaking the bottles of indelible ink before marking voters fingers. The result was that some could wash off the ink and vote twice. (See the Video on the right) </li>
</ul>
<div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/GH7TBowSVro?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
<br />
What is going on? Surely running an election can't be that difficult? After all, many democracies have been doing this for years without making such terrible errors.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Last week I gave a <a href="http://tobysjames.com/doc/3_2_Toby_James_Organisational_Performance_in_Electoral_Management.pdf" target="_blank">conference paper</a> at the <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/electoralintegrityproject4/events-1/harvard-workshop" target="_blank">Annual Workshop on Electoral Integrity</a> at Harvard University on why electoral officials are increasingly having problems. I interviewed many officials in the UK about the challenges that they face. It seems, that running elections is becoming increasingly difficult. Challenges in the UK include:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Greater legal complexity - a greater diversity and number of elections makes them harder to administer</li>
<li>More actors involved in elections - devolution and the fragmentation of central government makes elections more difficult to co-ordinate</li>
<li>Increased population movements - increased immigration and high levels of internal migration make the register difficult to compile.</li>
<li>The rise of social media - errors are reported more quickly and loudly because of the rise of Twitter etc</li>
</ul>
<div>
Elections have therefore become much more difficult to administer in the UK and it is more difficult to maintain high levels of satisfaction amongst citizens with electoral services.<br />
<br />
Some of these changes may be specific to the UK, but most can be found in many established democracies. This means that concerns about electoral integrity are no longer the preserve of new and emerging democracies. They are likely to be found in the backyard of the established democracies that were once thought of as exemplars to the world for the practice of elections.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWULXIHygK2XXKnQpEELVPiDisvZadAFx1RXXoRxi3gSzIA-l1t4bl3Yw-SkLZKPbZpQeAjvOSn5Ky7gwqgOxGolzWooyjcz4YB8jfUWc_IH3kdQ5qFsBVav8Prze7MQZYiLLpT3UuW3Rk/s1600/count6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWULXIHygK2XXKnQpEELVPiDisvZadAFx1RXXoRxi3gSzIA-l1t4bl3Yw-SkLZKPbZpQeAjvOSn5Ky7gwqgOxGolzWooyjcz4YB8jfUWc_IH3kdQ5qFsBVav8Prze7MQZYiLLpT3UuW3Rk/s320/count6.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Ballot papers from the 2010 British General election</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
***</div>
<div>
The paper can be downloaded <a href="http://tobysjames.com/doc/3_2_Toby_James_Organisational_Performance_in_Electoral_Management.pdf" target="_blank">here</a></div>
<div>
For information on the conference and other papers click <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/electoralintegrityproject4/events-1/harvard-workshop" target="_blank">here</a> </div>
</div>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-61127121759480735482013-02-27T00:43:00.002-08:002013-08-05T07:22:35.682-07:00US Supreme Court to further ignite the politics of election administration?<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4epvzlOiSyx49Duik_NQ-v7_vRrVCv0F_fzw2oJ7_hTsOlvwDAsgaxh85362cWceaL2PTo3znGTun6Ydj_6TPJAQC72_olcNr6lVchpBz05aX7KfHYDY3OLTGUs43cQ8b2ppiY2JPDzWz/s1600/voting+rights.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4epvzlOiSyx49Duik_NQ-v7_vRrVCv0F_fzw2oJ7_hTsOlvwDAsgaxh85362cWceaL2PTo3znGTun6Ydj_6TPJAQC72_olcNr6lVchpBz05aX7KfHYDY3OLTGUs43cQ8b2ppiY2JPDzWz/s200/voting+rights.jpg" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Voting rights rally in New York, 2011</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>The US Supreme Court could today set in motion the process of striking down Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. </b><br />
<br />
This rules that jurisdictions with a history of racial discrimination need to get permission from the federal government before enacting changes to voting procedures. It was a <a href="http://www.aclu.org/timeline-history-voting-rights-act">historic victory for the civil rights movement</a>.<br />
<br />
However, <a href="http://www.lawyerscommittee.org/projects/voting_rights/page?id=0073">Shelby County, Alabama</a> claim that Congress exceeded its constitutional authority when it reauthorised Section 5, which was only ever supposed to be temporary.<br />
<br />
It also claims that such restrictions are not necessary because black voter registration and turnout rates now are high and that black elected officials are commonplace.<br />
<br />
However, if the Act is overturned, expect the politics of election law to become more, not less furious. <br />
<br />
Defenders of Section 5 cite continued forms of discrimination. Section 5 was used to prevent changes to early voting and introduce identification requirements in these key states. As Rick Hasan notes, if Section 5 goes, <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/01/30/if-the-court-strikes-section-5-of-voting-rights-act/">'expect to see more brazen partisan gerrymanders, cutbacks in early voting and imposition of tougher voting and registration rules in the formerly covered jurisdictions.'</a><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjclmKbz3R6KmUzWxy07ska11aUkGr2V1CWxJR7_3xWjubtqbygy-veXFhmP5Lh2fQ1F9VM8O4N1dBQiWjmwKr2SlyUTkeJd6aZ0BTnA478nysX-ShFf6qWFGprNxDvPmgN91fB-7gYBZJ6/s1600/supreme+court.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjclmKbz3R6KmUzWxy07ska11aUkGr2V1CWxJR7_3xWjubtqbygy-veXFhmP5Lh2fQ1F9VM8O4N1dBQiWjmwKr2SlyUTkeJd6aZ0BTnA478nysX-ShFf6qWFGprNxDvPmgN91fB-7gYBZJ6/s200/supreme+court.jpg" width="196" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The US Supreme Court to hear <i>Shelby v Holder</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This will inevitably lead to a backlash from the Obama administration, the Democratic party and the civil rights movement. There were continued <a href="http://tobysjames.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/election-2012-shows-that-problems-with.html">problems in the 2012 US Presidential election</a>, which the president promised to fix. He recently announced the formation of the <a href="http://electionlawblog.org/wp-content/uploads/SOTU-factsheet-Elections-FINAL.pdf">'bipartisan' Bauer-Ginsberg commission</a> in his <a href="http://projects.nytimes.com/live-dashboard/2013-sotu#sha=1ccbe9a94">State of the Union speech</a> to improve voting procedures.<br />
<br />
Expect the ever-unresolved politics of election administration in the US to rumble on....Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-65929459478427859392012-11-14T05:01:00.001-08:002012-11-14T05:18:19.213-08:00How could the PCC elections have been better run?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>The UK is having its first elections for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) tomorrow, (Thursday 15th November). Citizens will have the chance to elect an official who will have the <a href="http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.homeoffice.gov.uk/police/police-crime-commissioners/questions/pcc-powers/">powers to</a>:</b><br />
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<ul>
<li>appoint and dismiss chief constables</li>
<li>set out a five-year police and crime plan </li>
<li>determine local policing priorities</li>
</ul>
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Teresa May has claimed that they will 'be a voice for local people'. Perhaps, perhaps not. However, there is a real concern that their democratic role will be undermined by low turnout. So what could have been done? </div>
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<b>Ways increase turnout - lessons from academic research</b></div>
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Low turnout is a problem because elected Commissioners may not be representative of broader public opinion. It also reduces the legitimacy of Commissioners and perhaps their effectiveness too.</div>
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In some senses, low turnout would not be a surprise because voter turnout is generally lower in 'second order' and 'third order' elections. Citizens vote in elections that they consider to be more important, such as general elections. Turnout would probably have been low, whatever.</div>
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However, based on established academic research government could have done much more to avoid low turnout. It could have:</div>
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<ul>
<li><i>Hold the election at the weekend, not a Thursday.</i> Why?</li>
<ul>
<li>Some democracies hold elections at weekends and <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00344893.2010.518076?journalCode=rrep20">research </a>suggests that this helps turnout.</li>
</ul>
<li><i>Better still, allow voting over several days.</i> Why?</li>
<ul>
<li>As the US election showed, many US states allow voting weeks in advance. Why not allow voting to take place over several days? <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00344893.2010.518076?journalCode=rrep20">Research </a>shows how this can improve turnout.</li>
</ul>
<li><i>Provide more information about candidates. </i>Why? </li>
<ul>
<li>As I said before, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/04/04/police-commissioners-james/">research </a>shows that providing free-post leaflets to candidates helps boost turnout. The government decided against this and instead set up a website. This is problematic because a significant amount of the UK still doesn't have internet access. A telephone line for the public has been set up, but it has received <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/nov/08/police-commissioner-election-helpline-useless">criticisms</a>.</li>
</ul>
<li><i>Hold the elections in May</i>. Why?</li>
<ul>
<li>November is a bad time for electoral officials who are busy updating the electoral register. This means that they their resources are drained and they cannot invest in public awareness activities, as they might at other points in the year. I interviewed many electoral administrators and they were concerned about a November election.</li>
<li>More importantly, <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/04/04/police-commissioners-james/">research </a>shows that combining elections can help boost turnout. If elections were combined with local or other elections in May, turnout might have been much higher. Ideally, combine it with a general election.</li>
<li>There have been some claims that November's 'early and dark nights' reduce turnout, I'm not aware of any research that demonstrates this. But please correct me if I'm wrong. </li>
</ul>
<li><i>Plan better.</i></li>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://prq.sagepub.com/content/early/2008/10/01/1065912908324870.abstract">Research </a>shows that errors made in the way that elections are run, voters' interactions with poll workers etc., can undermine confidence. The Electoral Commission issued some early warnings that planning had not progressed sufficiently at the earlier stages. There are some reports of leaflets not being delivered on time, problems with the telephone helpful for voters and confusion about who <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-20165939">can and cannot be a candidate</a>. Some teething problems are inevitable, but they might have been avoided, and won't help turnout and public trust.</li>
</ul>
</ul>
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<b>Electing Commissioners on the Cheap</b></div>
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The bottom line seems to be that the election could have been improved if more was spent on running it. Understandably, the government will be keen to keep costs down. Primarily, they will be concerned about arguments from the Labour Party that the money spent on the election could have been spent on more police officers.</div>
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<br /></div>
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However, if we are to have PCCs then it is important that they are not elected on the cheap. It undermines the eventual Commissioners, it undermines the police, and it undermines democracy</div>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-48834731706049470882012-11-13T01:51:00.002-08:002013-08-05T07:26:42.146-07:00Was Tony Blair a great prime minister?<b>Earlier in the summer, there was some </b><b>speculation that Tony Blair may yet dramatically return as Prime Minister.</b><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span>
When asked by the Evening Standard whether he would want another term he said <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/what-tony-blair-did-next-7892590.html">'sure'</a>.<br />
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Some British Prime Ministers have returned to office after leaving power. These include Lord Palmerston, Benjamin Disraeli, William Gladstone, Lord Salisbury, Stanley Baldwin, Winston Churchill and Harold Wilson. Most recent leaders, as <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Former-Leaders-Modern-Democracies-Leadership/dp/0230314473/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1343070930&sr=8-1">Kevin Theakston notes</a>, tend to end up doing a variety of other things.<br />
<br />
But was Tony Blair any good the first time around? <br />
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This is obviously a very controversial question. For some he will be remembered as a 'war monger' because of his decision to invade Iraq; for others an apologist for Thatcherism, for dropping many of Labour's left wing policies; for others the successful moderniser of the Labour party who presided over a successive years of economic prosperity and growth in Britain, and whose achievements also included peace in Northern Ireland.<br />
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There has been very little explicit scholarly work which has sort to evaluate Prime Ministerial performance. This stands in great contrast to the the US where assessing American Presidents has span many pages.<br />
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<a href="http://www.york.ac.uk/politics/our-staff/jim-buller/">Dr. Jim Buller</a> (University of York) and I have just published <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-856X.2011.00471.x/full">a new article</a> on how political scientists should assess British Prime Ministers. Our method provides a framework for assessing whether they are successful at winning office and maintaining a sense of governing competence, particularly on the key issue of the economy.<br />
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The article considers the case of Tony Blair and argues that he was very successful at this. His party won three full parliamentary terms in a row, a feat not achieved by any other Labour leadership clique. Moreover, it significantly altered the methods by which the party fought elections, reforms that remain in place to this day.<br />
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Similar points might be made about the criterion of governing competence. Not only did Blair and his colleagues re-establish Labour's reputation in this area, but some of the policy changes put in place to fulfil this objective (particularly Bank of England independence) now have a lasting legacy.<br />
<br />
Although Blair failed to devise a consistent and compelling narrative for New Labour, which had a significant impact on the climate of British politics, the party did win the political argument on important issues, such as greater expenditure on public services.<br />
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Party management was arguably Blair's least strong suit in the sense that he was unable to prevent the splits between leader and rank and file that had plagued his successors. But overall, Blair's leadership deserves a very high place in any future league table of British prime ministers.<br />
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It has to be said that a Blair return is some way off. Ed Miliband has built up a lead in the polls and the questions about his leadership have retreated. If he loses the next general election then he may not survive as party leader and we should expect a leadership contest, but there will be plenty of younger leadership candidates in the frame if that happens. Unfortunately for Blair <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jul/23/tony-blair-prime-minister-return" target="_blank">one poll</a> has suggested that Labour support would drop (except in the South-East) if he was to become leader again.<br />
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So was Tony Blair a great Prime Minister? Here are some of his most famous moments, to help you decide.<br />
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<br />Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-14858542412645113912012-11-07T01:31:00.000-08:002012-11-08T01:24:31.626-08:00Election 2012 shows that problems with US election administration remain<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>Barack Obama has been re-elected as President of the United States. Thankfully, there is a winner with a significant margin meaning that there is not a repeat of 2000. Twelve years ago the result was decided by the US Supreme Court after the controversy over 'hanging chads' and 'butterfly ballots' in Florida.</b><br />
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However, had the election been tighter, would this have been the case?<br />
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What is clear is that problems remain with the administration of elections in the US. Across the country, lengthy queues formed at polling stations. An election official from the Marion County Election Board, Indianapolis, Indiana tweeted a picture (below) demonstrating the length of queues forming at one polling station. Did voters patiently wait or vote, or did the queue deter them? '[W]e did lose a few who didn't want to wait', admitted the election official.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><a href="https://twitter.com/MCEBIndy/status/265476216486768640/photo/1" target="_blank"><img alt="Embedded image permalink" border="0" height="240" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A68pNlxCMAAxrg_.jpg" title="Polling queue in Indianapolis, IN " width="320" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://twitter.com/MCEBIndy/status/265476216486768640/photo/1" target="_blank">Queues form in Indianapolis, IN. Source: Marion County (IN) Election Board</a></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Elsewhere, there was <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20121107_Pa__voter_ID_law_confuses.html" target="_blank">widespread confusion in Philadelphia</a>. Republicans had sought to introduce a voter ID law but a judge ruled that implementation should wait until after the Presidential election. Widespread confusion ensued among voters and poll staff. Was ID required or not (in fact, it was needed only for first time voters)? There were reports that some poll workers and 'election observers' were deliberately asking for voter ID, even though it was not required. One tweeter (below) posted a picture of these signs that they found and took down.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><a href="https://twitter.com/mccanner/status/265887377803853824" target="_blank"><img alt="Embedded image permalink" border="0" height="240" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7CfKVCCQAEhwF_.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://twitter.com/mccanner/status/265887377803853824" target="_blank">Voter ID signs in PA</a></td></tr>
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The US, often held up as a pillar of democracy, has a darker side to its elections. Often these problems are a result of deliberate strategies of vote suppression. Politicians and their agents perceive that they can gain electoral advantage from discouraging their opponents’ supporters to vote. Voter ID laws have been shown to be particularly 'effective' at reducing turnout among certain populations. They are also a useful method for threatening voters at polling stations. <br />
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Another tactic is deliberately under-funding election boards. The Marion County Election Board, referred to above, complained that they wanted more poll sites, but 'Republicans had vetoed our resolution for more at each election since 2010' (sic). In Florida 2000, it was areas dominated by Democrat voters that saw the greatest queues form - areas which suffered from under-funding. Republican politicians held the purse-strings.<br />
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Problems are not always caused deliberately. They can stem from failures of electoral management. Poor planning on behalf of electoral officials and a lack of training can lead to problems for the voters. Some polling stations, including some in <a href="http://www.newarkadvocate.com/article/20121106/NEWS01/311060044/Several-Licking-County-sites-run-out-ballots?odyssey=nav%7Chead&nclick_check=1" target="_blank">Ohio</a>, ran out of ballot papers. In <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/06/3085322/across-south-florida-long-lines.html" target="_blank">Miami-Dade County</a>, host to the problems in 2000, scanning machines broke down leaving voters to queue for hours. Further problems will problem emerge over the coming weeks.<br />
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There is an urgent need to understand how failures of electoral management can be avoided (or reduced). They are not the reserve of newly democratising countries or electoral autocracies such as Russia. They also take place in the US, and, as <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVLnZfVfUnw" target="_blank">scenes from the 2010 general election</a> demonstrated, the UK. The UK Electoral Commission has developed some strategies for improving election administration which <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxpcHNhZWNwfGd4OjZhZDIxODY0ZmYzODUzZg&pli=1" target="_blank">my research</a> has suggested has had some positive effects. However, academics and policy makers should work together to find ways to improve elections. Efforts to suppress legitimate voters require rigorous scrutiny from the media and public.<br />
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Thankfully, the 2012 election appears to have been decided by the voters, not the administration of votes. But things could have been very different.</div>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0Norwich, Norfolk, UK52.6308859 1.29735552.5537859 1.1394265000000001 52.707985900000004 1.4552835tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-68976272035966236832012-07-31T04:14:00.000-07:002012-07-31T08:15:25.031-07:00NFK-NOP publish report on improving electoral registrationThe UK Cabinet Office published a report last week on the attitudes of under-represented groups towards electoral registration and individual registration.
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It was written by the consumer marketing company NFK-NOP.<br />
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Legislation to change the way that UK citizens register to vote is working its way through Parliament. Registration rates have been falling dramatically in the UK.<br />
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Some of the findings from their qualitative interviews do chime with some of the academic literature on electoral registration/voter participation (including my research on <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/06/23/pa.gss032.short?rss=1" target="_blank">the experiences of electoral administrations</a>). Notably:<br />
<ul>
<li>Many citizens who are interested in politics don't register because they lack the information or 'triggers' to do so (p.7-8)</li>
<li>Some decline in electoral registration may occur amongst those who are currently registered by other people (p.12).</li>
<li>There are concerns about use of national insurance numbers because of the prospects of identity fraud (p.13).</li>
<li>There is support for the idea of allowing registration when accessing other government services (p.13). </li>
<li>Young people suggest smartphone apps should be available (p.13-4)</li>
</ul>
Overall, a strong theme is the need for information campaigns.
This is a useful study, but there is still a need for further academic and policy research on electoral registration in Britain. Information campaigns can only go so far and there is a need to make registration simple and to open multiple channels for voter registration.<br />
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See my earlier blog post <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/05/21/individual-electoral-registration-james/" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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<b>Update:</b> see criticism from the Electoral Reform Society of the report recommendations here: <a href="http://www.lgcplus.com/briefings/services/elections/personal-letters-key-to-voting-change/5047735.article">http://www.lgcplus.com/briefings/services/elections/personal-letters-key-to-voting-change/5047735.article</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/101621603/Cabinet-Office-2012" style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px auto; text-decoration: underline;" title="View Cabinet Office 2012 on Scribd">Cabinet Office 2012</a><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="0.706697459584296" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_52104" scrolling="no" src="http://www.scribd.com/embeds/101621603/content?start_page=1&view_mode=list&access_key=key-18uslkkaudyy9halowtw" width="100%"></iframe>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-11745517405367219972012-07-22T05:06:00.003-07:002012-07-22T05:15:23.945-07:00Is online registration a wolf in sheep's clothing?Online voter registration was in the news last week.<br />
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In the US state of Washington citizens will be able to <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/19/oukin-uk-usa-voting-washington-idUKBRE86I03320120719" target="_blank">register to vote via Facebook</a>. This will use a piece of software developed specially by Facebook and Microsoft.<br />
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Meanwhile, in Britain, it was reported that<a href="http://www.publicservice.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=20302"> Harrow has become the first local authority to allow <span id="goog_441848069">online re-registration</span></a> for those already on the electoral register.<br />
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Many electoral administrators around the world may therefore be looking to online registration to solve problems with the cost of elections and low registration rates. As the Electoral Reform Society tweeted: <a href="https://twitter.com/electoralreform" target="_blank">'[b]earing in mind the UK's poor registration rates, is this the future?'</a>.<br />
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<b>A remedy for declining registration?</b><br />
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The development of online registration is especially important in Britain. Here, the government's legislation to introduce individual electoral registration (IER) will have its second reading in the House of Lords on Tuesday. My <a href="http://pa.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/06/23/pa.gss032.short?rss=1" target="_blank">research on the effects of IER</a> (<a href="http://tobysjames.com/doc/TobyJamesindividualreg.pdf" target="_blank">a copy is also available on my website</a>) found that we should expected IER to reduce electoral registration rates. We therefore need other ways to increase registration rates in Britain to offset this decline.<br />
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The UK government has always been in favour of online registration and it published the eagerly awaited <a href="https://update.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/implementation-plan-individual-electoral-registration" target="_blank">implementation plan for IER</a> last week included.<br />
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Online registration is a good thing though, yes? I've said so before. The logic is that by opening up as many methods of registering to vote as possible, registration rates will rise. Citizens are increasingly online and government services need to adapt accordingly.<br />
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However, there might be a catch. Faced with budget cuts electoral administrators may use online registration as a <i>replacement </i>for other methods. This seems to be Harrow's thinking. They have introduced it partly as a way of saving money. Fortunately, they appear to be keeping the 'old fashioned' paper registration mechanisms too. <br />
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This line of thinking informed the government's decision to not pay for campaign literature for candidates for the UK's Police and Crime Commissioner elections. Instead, of paying for one free leaflet per candidate, there would be one website on which citizens could find out about who was standing, and what for. This was quickly <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/2012/04/04/police-commissioners-james/" target="_blank">criticised for reinforcing digital divides and reducing electoral participation</a>.<br />
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There is also <a href="http://prq.sagepub.com/content/64/4/858.short" target="_blank">this recent research paper</a> by Elizabeth A. Bennion (Indiana University) and David W. Nickerson (University of Notre-Dame) which suggests that online registration can make citizens less likely to register. Citizens need regular reminders, they claim, in order to re-register online.<br />
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The devil is therefore in the detail. Citizen's experience of online registration therefore needs further research and its implementation in Washington, the UK and everywhere else should be carefully monitored.<br />
<br />Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0Swansea, UK51.62144 -3.94364651.6017235 -3.9831280000000002 51.6411565 -3.904164tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-10553159787764046912012-07-17T00:33:00.000-07:002012-07-17T00:45:05.363-07:00Why did the electoral system favour Labour?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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In the 2010 general election, the electoral system was said to have heavily advantaged the Labour party. Sounds unfair? Perhaps. This very useful video explains why.Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-52238158325808664022012-06-13T06:04:00.002-07:002012-06-13T06:08:53.778-07:00Is UK electoral registration 'improving'? If not, why not?The UK Electoral Commission has just published<a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/148763/ERO-report-2011.pdf" target="_blank"> a new report detailing the results of the performance standards for electoral registration officers.</a><br />
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This is an annual report. The standards have been in place since 2008. The standards arose in 2006 after there were concerns that not all local authorities were not doing everything that they could to promote electoral registration and run elections effectively.<br />
<br />
The report details an improvement according to the standards. Less and less electoral registration officers are now not meeting the benchmark standards. However, the report expresses concern that 58 electoral registration officers don't meet standard 3 - house to house enquiries to complete the register.<br />
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxpcHNhZWNwfGd4OjZhZDIxODY0ZmYzODUzZg&pli=1" target="_blank">A conference paper</a> that I've written explains why some electoral registration officers consider it important to meet the standards, and others do not. The paper will be presented at a workshop on <a href="http://www.ipsa-ecp.com/id16.html" target="_blank">electoral integrity</a> in Madrid next month. This is based on over 70 interviews with local election officials during 2011. The research was funded by the McDougall Trust and Nuffield Foundation.<br />
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Electoral registration officers see it as important to meet the standard for a number of reasons, but key amongst these are the effects that not meeting the standard can have on their personal and organisational reputations. Making the results of non-performance more widely known can act as a significant trigger for change. Very often, the results of the standards go by unnoticed by the media and the public.<br />
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Many do not meet the standard. The key reasons are that officials think that the standards won't improve elections, that there were insufficient incentives to change practices, they had insufficient resources to do so, that meeting the standard was not possible or that there were strategic incentives in not meeting the standard at a given point in time.<br />
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Nonetheless, the presence of the standards has a number of effects on confidence in the electoral processes amongst elite actors, if not, the public. They are an important way of improving election administration. <br />
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The Electoral Commission has warned that the Electoral Registration and Administration Bill, currently being considered by Parliament, may water down the requirements on local elections staff to meet the standards. It states that officials must only do what is 'reasonably practical' rather than 'all necessary steps'. The Electoral Commission therefore proposes revising the Bill. This research supports this claim.<br />
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There might be more scope, however, to include academic research and local elections staff in the devising of indicators for the future. The Electoral Commission is likely to need to have a new set of performance indicators for electoral registration officers once individual electoral registration is introduced.Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-2198744853861987312012-05-13T06:24:00.001-07:002012-05-13T06:46:14.728-07:00New Research on Individual Electoral Registration - Policy Implications<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9f84Wom7I8s9tc3c4S0GGTbsjgBQjJ9Zn4cjAlOV4rr-NoXkeFjVk5eOxT3xlOKYrdAUdYJ5b7C0I4m2nuqUyOGMhQfANRhzOiwWPGvKnRJes1XjfPYS-JRMi6BqrbjHn54vBrMTSMMV/s1600/ballot.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW9f84Wom7I8s9tc3c4S0GGTbsjgBQjJ9Zn4cjAlOV4rr-NoXkeFjVk5eOxT3xlOKYrdAUdYJ5b7C0I4m2nuqUyOGMhQfANRhzOiwWPGvKnRJes1XjfPYS-JRMi6BqrbjHn54vBrMTSMMV/s1600/ballot.jpg" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Most discussion was about the House of Lords reform following the Queen's Speech last week. However, the government also introduced the <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2012-2013/0006/en/13006en.htm">Electoral Registration And Administration Bill</a> into Parliament. Amongst other things, the bill intends to introduce individual electoral registration (IER) for elections in England, Wales and Scotland. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">At almost the same time, I am about to have an article that I have written on the likely effects of introducing individual registration published in the journal </span><i style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Parliamentary Affairs</i><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. You can download the article </span><a href="http://tobysjames.com/doc/TobyJamesindividualreg.pdf" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">here</a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This research is built upon findings from<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwIfPfvjDwY&feature=youtu.be"> an ongoing project funded by the McDougall Trust and Nuffield Foundation on election administration in the UK</a>. Earlier findings were presented to a House of Commons Select Committee in September last year. </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It is interesting to note that since then the government has already shifted its position on a number of policy positions from</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> </span><a href="http://www.official-documents.gov.uk/document/cm81/8108/8108.pdf" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">the proposals first introduced in June last year</a><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">. For example, the 'opt-out', whereby citizens could tick a box and not be included on the register appears to have been dropped. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15262343">Nick Clegg hinted that this might happen</a> in October last year. T</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">he proposed Bill suggests that there will be now be a penalty for those who do not register. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">However, the article has a number of important policy implications and recommendations for the legislation and future practice of elections in the UK:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<ol style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Individual
registration is likely to lead to a considerable decline in levels of
registration, especially amongst the younger, elder and minority populations.
<b>The government could consider therefore other new schemes offset the anticipated decline. </b> These might
include:</span></li>
</ol>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="circle">
<li><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Online
registration (this was always the plan, it seems, but it is important that it is taken forward....)</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Allowing citizens
to register to vote when accessing other government services such as obtaining a
driving licence. The majority of new registrants in
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region></st1:place> register to vote via this
mechanism. This could be an especially effective way of targeting younger citizens.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Providing penalties
for those who do not register (which now appears to be on the cards...)</span></li>
</ul>
<ol start="2" style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="1">
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Individual
registration is a more resource intensive way of compiling the electoral
register than household registration. There may also be many unforeseen costs
to local government at a time that they are faced with budget cuts. Returning
and registration officers may therefore make cuts in other services to allow for
the introduction of individual registration. <b>Measures should be put in place to ensure
sufficient <i>long-term</i> funding of
elections. </b> This could involve ring-fencing new funding for election departments.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The requirement for
citizens to provide personal identifiers, such as a national insurance number,
may confuse many voters. <b>The views of
citizens towards the registration process should be carefully monitored through
survey research after the implementation of
IER.</b></span></li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Changes to the way the electoral register is compiled does not always capture the public or media's interest. But it has important implications for how many people vote, electoral fraud, whether people perceive electoral institutions to be fair and sometimes who wins elections. There have been some excellent recent blog posts from the like of <a href="http://www.leftfootforward.org/2012/05/individual-electoral-registration-is-not-the-answer-to-electoral-fraud/">Ros Baston</a> and others in recent weeks. Let's hope there remains continued public interest in this important, but easily forgotten, issue.</span></div>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-18320351855103579822012-01-11T06:10:00.000-08:002012-01-13T01:41:19.129-08:00Electoral musical chairs comes to Wales - will voters and politicians lose out?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT8-dHznfN1pedQWEbJfvkwlr0zw-xh9xel9F-w5XbjUijNGmIG_rVGijNdJmE4-T9NMrONhUJjeAHmAkEXBSmHJ1_fdcIchMf-wNXPZBaDL6rn4tqT8k4SS8bLntJpFVUcsn56mcx65z7/s1600/voter.jpg"><br /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8aF1CUlK-PF-PYo_G1V2XdHk9rs1kHHcTdKyJW2AXkyY52U5gLMBWWybk-tTnXMhGn0_EVlY6PMAu9kUF2owa1VlSi72CbKQJ7WMglomy1_m4owguA-gLD3T1VAkYvx21TFsTN4YtE0z/s1600/15109_flags_flag_of_wales.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc8aF1CUlK-PF-PYo_G1V2XdHk9rs1kHHcTdKyJW2AXkyY52U5gLMBWWybk-tTnXMhGn0_EVlY6PMAu9kUF2owa1VlSi72CbKQJ7WMglomy1_m4owguA-gLD3T1VAkYvx21TFsTN4YtE0z/s320/15109_flags_flag_of_wales.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696408051768027714" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span><u><br /></u></span></div><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Electoral law is in the news again in the <st1:country-region st="on">UK</st1:country-region>, and this time it's <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales'</st1:place></st1:country-region> turn. Radical plans to reduce the number of constituencies in <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region></st1:place> were published by the <a href="http://www.bcomm-wales.gov.uk/2013_review_e.htm">Boundary Commission</a> this week. But what do they mean for <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>?</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b><br /></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>What is happening?</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">One of the first Bills introduced to the UK Parliament by the coalition government formed in May 2010 involved reducing the number of MPS from 650 to 600. The Coalition justified this on the basis that it would save the country money. The reputation of MPs was low at the time on the back of the expenses scandal so it was popular policy. However, partisan calculations were not doubt present as well.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Boundaries are proposed in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region> by independent bodies called Boundary Commissions, not by politicians themselves (thankfully!). Reducing the number of MPs requires reducing the number constituencies so they have been busy drawing up new proposal to cut the <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place> electoral map into 600 rather than 650 pieces. Plans have already been published for <st1:country-region st="on">Scotland</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">England</st1:place></st1:country-region>. This week it was <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>' turn.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b>What effect will it have for <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>?<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Four main things:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i>Unfamiliar and confusing seats</i></p> <p class="MsoNormal">First, old constituencies will largely go out the window. There will be 30 brand new constituencies and 15 will be wholly contained within a new constituency. Only 10 remain the same. You may need to check where your MP will be!</p> <p class="MsoNormal">These new constituencies may be unfamiliar but also confusing. This is because the government has also stipulated that constituencies must be drawn up by maths and not communities. Boundaries used to be based on the idea of communities - MPs were to be elected to represent distinct communities, and electoral equality was secondary to that goal. The Boundary Commission had the thankless task of drawing up boundaries which are between nearly 73,000 and just over 80,000 voters. Many constituencies have therefore had to be broken up to meet this criteria. Small towns that used to be a constituency may not be big enough any more and might have to join with somewhere else. There will be some odd constituencies. <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/11/welsh-constituency-rejig-slammed-diabolical-1">One Plaid MP</a> expressed concern about:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i>" two totally different communities being put together despite a large mountain separating them, as well as a number of proposals where two villages in the same community have been separated. We are also worried by the size of some of the proposed constituencies."</i></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p></o:p>For example, Caerphilly will no longer have its own constituency because it will be twinned with Cardiff North. Llanelli will take some areas currently within the Gower boundary. Neath will expand to include parts of Gower, Swansea East and Aberavon. There'll be a new seat called Gower and Swansea West.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i>Less power for <st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> in <st1:place st="on"><st1:city st="on">Westminster</st1:city></st1:place></i></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Many people in Wales may not be concerned that 10 MPs will be losing their jobs - espeically at a time when many in Wales are losing theirs. But Wales and individual citizens will lose out. There will be fewer MPs at Westminister representing <st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Most of <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>’ constituencies were around 57,000 citizens in size. The new electoral quota of c.76,000 registered voters means than <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region> will have only 30 MPs, rather than 40. This cuts <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>' representation by a quarter. Architects of the system say that this is because <st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> has long been overrepresented in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Westminster</st1:place></st1:city> in the past and the new changes make for equal representation. Nonetheless, <st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region> will have less influence in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region> government as a result of these changes. Individual citizens may find that their MP is now more remote and less able to represent their views because they have to represent 75,000 citizens and not 53,000.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i>Career uncertainty for politicians</i></p> <p class="MsoNormal">There will be considerable political uncertainly for MPs and in the longer term, AMs. Constituency redrawing always brings uncertainly for politicians because it makes their jobs unsafe. Many politicians have safe seats which they know they will win. However, this time it is an even more intense game of musical chairs with 10 seats being taken away. There will be a political scrap within parties for prize seats. Some high profile politicians may end up without a job.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><i>More re-drawing for 2020</i></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Further re-drawing may happen again very soon. The new system bases the constituencies on the number of registered voters in each constituency. However, the UK government is currently planning to make changes to the way that people register which is widely thought to reduce the number of people on the register. From 2014 it plans to introduce a system of individual registration which will make it more bureaucratic for a citizen to register to vote. When this was introduced in <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Northern Ireland</st1:place></st1:country-region> in 2002 there was a 10% drop in the register, within the effect being greater in urban areas. If registration levels drop by 10% in the <st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">UK</st1:place></st1:country-region>, then most constituencies will not be the right size anymore and another round of constituency redrawing may begin.</p><p class="MsoNormal">The government denies that a decline in levels of registration will occur as a result of plans to implement individual electoral registration. <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmpolcon/writev/1463/ea04.htm">My own research suggests</a>, that unless serious compensatory mechanisms are put in place, this will happen. </p><p class="MsoNormal"></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>Who will gain?<o:p></o:p></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia; ">The Conservatives in<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on"><st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">Westminster</st1:place></st1:city><span class="apple-converted-space"></span></st1:place></st1:city> </span>had become concerned with how the existing boundary system benefitted the Labour Party in general elections and this was one of the motives for the reforms. The changes will certainly help the Conservatives in 2015, although not as much as they might hope. It will however, effectively reduce representation in areas that do not support the Conservatives e.g.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">Wales</st1:country-region><span class="apple-converted-space"></span></st1:country-region> and urban<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on">Britain</st1:country-region></st1:place><span class="apple-converted-space"></span></st1:country-region></st1:place> in general. <o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia; ">Within<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on"><st1:country-region st="on"><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region><span class="apple-converted-space"></span></st1:place></st1:country-region> </span>the position is different. Increasing the size of the constituencies tends to disadvantage the smaller parties – these being the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Conservatives and Liberals may find themselves with less Welsh representation in <st1:city st="on"><st1:place st="on">London</st1:place></st1:city> – which would seem like an own goal. <o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Georgia; ">If we get a new electoral system for the Welsh Assembly as a result of the constituency changes, then power within </span><st1:country-region st="on" style="font-family: Georgia; "><st1:place st="on">Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="font-family: Georgia; "> will also be significantly affected.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b>What happens next?</b></p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT8-dHznfN1pedQWEbJfvkwlr0zw-xh9xel9F-w5XbjUijNGmIG_rVGijNdJmE4-T9NMrONhUJjeAHmAkEXBSmHJ1_fdcIchMf-wNXPZBaDL6rn4tqT8k4SS8bLntJpFVUcsn56mcx65z7/s1600/voter.jpg"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT8-dHznfN1pedQWEbJfvkwlr0zw-xh9xel9F-w5XbjUijNGmIG_rVGijNdJmE4-T9NMrONhUJjeAHmAkEXBSmHJ1_fdcIchMf-wNXPZBaDL6rn4tqT8k4SS8bLntJpFVUcsn56mcx65z7/s200/voter.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5696408981390545314" style="float: left; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; cursor: pointer; width: 150px; height: 200px; " /></a><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><p class="MsoNormal">The Boundary Commission has only published proposals. They will undertake public consultations (details are on <a href="http://www.bcomm-wales.gov.uk/2013_review_e.htm">their website</a>) and voters can attend these and have their say about their constituency. There is time to make your views known.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">The final proposals have also been to be approved by Parliament. It was initially thought that this approved was a given. The Coalition has a majority in government so would be very likely to approve their own plans. However, some Conservative MPs have become very concerned about how disruptive these plans have become - especially if their own seat is at risk. Baroness Warsi has said that ‘I agree with some of our MPs that some proposals are mad and insane’ . Mark Field MP has described the changes as ‘...somewhat more disruptive than we had in mind’. There is still every chance that the whole process might collapse and constituency redrawing never happens.</p><p:colorscheme colors="#ffffff,#000000,#eeece1,#1f497d,#4f81bd,#c0504d,#0000ff,#800080"><div shape="_x0000_s1026" class="O"><span style="font-family:Calibri;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;font-size:36pt"><b></b></span></div></p:colorscheme>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-311385920430159062011-10-13T14:57:00.000-07:002011-10-13T15:03:50.576-07:00IER a new administrative burden on local government<div><br /></div><div>The debate about the UK government's plans to introduce individual electoral registration is heating up. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15262343">Nick Clegg has suggested that the government may now not introduce voluntary registration</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>One key effect that individual registration might have is an increased administrative burden on local authorities, but this is not been widely discussed. Individual registration is an enormous change. Councils will have to target individuals rather than households. They will have to process many more forms. <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmpolcon/writev/1463/ea04.htm).">My research</a> has suggested that some elections managers expect that they would need their team to double in size. Local government budgets are not ring-fenced for elections and we should expect them to try to make savings by cutting back on other aspects of work on elections e.g. public awareness and less elaborate canvassing. In short, there will be a 'spillover' effect.</div><div><br /></div><div>The government has proposed funding the changes in the short-term, but the long-term financing of elections is also vitally important.</div>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-28667525475306226122011-09-29T06:25:00.000-07:002012-11-13T05:30:56.458-08:00New article published on electoral reform<div>
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<div>
My latest research article has been published in the journal <i>Contemporary Politics</i>. It is available online here: <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13569775.2011.597146">http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13569775.2011.597146</a> (or email me for a copy!).</div>
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The article looks at why electoral institutions change. This question has been explored with respect to electoral systems (See the work of <a href="http://www.reading.ac.uk/spirs/about/staff/a-renwick.aspx">Alan Renwick</a> etc.). However, there has been very little work on why other electoral institutions change. </div>
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In this article I look at election administration. I consider whether political elites seek to change election administration for partisan interest in the UK, Ireland and USA. I find new evidence that they do in the UK and USA, but less so in Ireland. The article builds a model to explain the conditions under which elites will seek to manipulate elections for partisan interest.</div>
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The arguments in this article are developed in my forthcoming book, to be published next year with Palgrave.</div>
Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8591741403356952431.post-57245601759190392482011-09-05T11:10:00.000-07:002011-09-05T12:46:42.405-07:00The Impact of Individual Registration on British Elections<div>The Coalition government proposes to fast-track individual electoral registration (IER) for British elections before the 2015 general election. </div><div><br /></div><div>The proposals are currently being considered by the <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/political-and-constitutional-reform-committee/news/call-for-evidence-the-governments-proposals-on-electoral-administration/">Select Committee on Political and Constitutional Reform</a>. </div><div><br /></div>My evidence to the Select Committee on Political and Constitutional Reform is now available online to download <a href="http://tobysjames.com/doc/Toby_James_IER_evidence.pdf">here</a>.<div><br /></div><div>The evidence draws from published studies on the effects that different forms of election administration have on voter registration and voter turnout. It also draws from interviews that I have undertaken as part of my<a href="http://www.swan.ac.uk/artsandhumanities/riah/videos/drtobyjames/"> ongoing research project on performance management in UK elections</a>. I have interviewed senior election staff such as Returning Officers and Electoral Services Managers from 18 authorities since January 2011.</div><div><br /></div><div>Levels of registration in the UK have been in decline for some years. My evidence suggests that IER is very likely to accelerate this decline. Although it is not considered in depth in this briefing, it is anticipated that voluntary registration is also likely to reduce the numbers on the electoral register.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>IER would be one of the most significant changes to election administration that Britain has seen since becoming a democracy. It will force electoral administrators to undertake significant and costly administrative changes. At a time when a number of other changes are being made to electoral law in the UK, and local government budgets are being cut, there are concerns about the funding elections.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>If IER is to be introduced then it is recommended that:</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>- Other provisions should be put in place to boost voter registration such as enabling voter registration when citizens access other government services. Lessons can be drawn from overseas innovations.</div><div>- The long-term funding of election administration is duly considered, given the context of local government cuts.</div><div>- Issues of voter accessibility are fully considered.</div><div>- The views of citizens towards the registration process should be carefully monitored towards the registration process once during and after the implementation of IER.</div><div><br /><div>The Coalition government's White Paper is available here: <a href="http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/individual-electoral-registration-draft-bill">http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/resource-library/individual-electoral-registration-draft-bill</a>.</div><div><br /></div></div></div>Toby S. Jameshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00650580678642711236noreply@blogger.com0